Bleacher Creature Feature

#29: Postseason Prognostications

20 September 2002

It seems fairly self-evident that the starting four will be:

1. Roger Clemens
2. Andy Pettitte
3. Mike Mussina
4. David Wells

Long relief/emergency starts/mop-up work will be handled by:

5. Orlando Hernandez
6. Jeff Weaver

El Duque probably punched his way out of the starting four, punctuated by a weak-kneed performance against a team with a hundred losses on Tuesday. As for Weaver, he's still comparatively untested, despite some fine performances lately, albeit against sub-.500 teams (Tampa Bay, Toronto, Baltimore, Texas).

Late innings will, natch, be handled by The Big Four:

7. Ramiro Mendoza
8. Mike Stanton
9. Steve Karsay
10. Mariano Rivera

I can't see Joe Torre taking more than ten pitchers (especially since he's been quoted as saying he's only taking ten pitchers), which leaves fifteen position players.

The infield/DH group will no doubt be familiar:

11. Jason Giambi
12. Nick Johnson
13. Alfonso Soriano
14. Derek Jeter
15. Robin Ventura

If the Yanks make the World Series, Johnson will likely be reduced to pinch-hitting duties in the NL ballpark. Otherwise, he and Giambi will probably trade off on the 1B/DH tasks, as they have all year to good effect. The next two spots are the catcher and his backup:

16. Jorge Posada
17. Chris Widger

That leaves eight players for the bench and the outfield:

18. Bernie Williams
19. Raul Mondesi
20. Rondell White
21. Enrique Wilson
22. Juan Rivera
23. Ron Coomer
24. Shane Spencer
25. John VanderWal

VanderWal's obviously going to the bench -- he's one of the best pinch hitters of the last decade -- and Coomer and Wilson will be the infield backups/pinch runners/pinch hitters, etc. Bernie's going to start in center come hell or high water. Raul will start in right -- he's been hitting quite well since he hasn't been asked to be a cleanup hitter, and his defense will come in handy in close games. (His ability to keep runners from taking extra bases has been a nice benefit, and one that could make the difference between a 3-2 loss and a 2-1 win in a tight postseason game.)

That leaves left field. Let's compare some lines:

30 AB, 5 R, 6 H, 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 K, 0 SB, 0 CS, .200 AVG, .250 OBP, .467 SLG, .717 OPS
50 AB, 5 R, 16 H, 3 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 0 HBP, 7 K, 1 SB, 1 CS, .320 AVG, .340 OBP, .380 SLG, .720 OPS

They're actually much closer than I thought. Those are the September statistics for Rondell White and Juan Rivera. The difference is that Rondell's recent stats are better than what he's done for most of the year. He's at .237/.287/.363 for the season, which is totally unacceptable for a regular unless he's the best catcher ever -- certainly no good in a corner outfielder when better alternatives are available. Rivera's, on the other hand, are pretty much his whole season. And I like having a .340 OBP in the lineup more than a .250 OBP (or even a .287 OBP).

Don't be surprised to see Spencer and White riding the bench. Torre's always been big on playing the hot hand, and Rivera's one of the hottest hands the Yankees have right now.

Left out of the equation is Sterling Hitchcock, which is as it should be. In fact, I see Hitchcock's presence on the roster as part of an ongoing handicapping the Yankees have been doing as a favor to their opponents, by only playing with a 24-person roster. They did this at the beginning of the year by carrying the tattered remains of Gerald Williams, then they released him when Hitch came off the DL. Hitchcock pretty much cemented his spot on the golf course in October by losing to the Deviled Eggs on Thursday. If the Yankees have anything like brains, Thursday's loss will be Hitch's last appearance in a Yankee uniform as a pitcher.

In conclusion, I am happy to say that I have procured right-field bleacher tickets for the first games at Yankee Stadium of both the American League Division Series (likely Game 1 against either Anaheim or Oakland) and the American League Championship Series (either Game 1 or Game 3, depending on the Yanks' opponent, and assuming, of course, that they make it that far). I did it the old-fashioned way, getting on line at 7.30am and waiting until the tickets went on sale at noon. Full reports will, of course, be forthcoming.....

NEXT: LDS Game 1

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