Eight Futures 3

First, arherring had a comment on the previous post that suggested a superpower is an entity that can do whatever it wants, wherever it wants, whenever it wants. By that definition, there has never been a superpower. Even Rome at its height was constrained by its number of men under arms, its internal politics, and "soft power" considerations, such as the need for favorable omens to persuade it it was carrying out the will of its gods, and the memory of its annihilated legions and lost eagles at Carrhae and Teutoburger Wald. Much as behavioral economics is overturning the Homo economicus of a Randian's dreams, behavioral political science will overturn the national interest of a Kissingerian's. See Robert Axelrod's The Complexity of Cooperation, chapter 4.

Second, I wanted to say a few words about failed superpowers, meaning powers that sought to drive the interpolity agenda in the medium term, but fell short. The two leading examples are France from Louis XIV to Napoleon I, and Germany from 1890 to 1945. Both sought to drive the agenda of continental Europe by winning wars and planting puppets on foreign thrones, but both were opposed in the attempt to reach that status by Britain. The Spanish Armada made clear the only possible threat to Britain was from a power that commanded the continent to such an extent that it could afford to build a massive fleet. Hence, Britain opposed any attempt to command the continent, by diplomacy, by subsidizing allies, and, less frequently, by landing its own ground forces. (Yet even as clear-eyed a power as Britain fell into traps of memory and habit--as late as 90 years after Waterloo, a faction in Whitehall sought an alliance with Germany against France).

A power need not be a superpower to defeat another power's attempt to reach that status: Britain wasn't a superpower from 1588 to 1815, yet foiled France's attempts. Also, a power need not defeat all other powers, even other superpowers, in war to achieve that status: Britain was on the winning side of both world wars, but doing so spent its will and gave the USA and USSR a vacuum to fill. Yet a power most often becomes a superpower by defeating its rivals in war.

Concerning the future, many Americans worry about a US-China war, and for good reason, see above; but India is potentially as likely a source of global disorder and challenge to American hegemony. Will it be or not? More later.