The Transhuman Comedy
Raymund Eich's freelance futurism for fun and profit.About Me
- Name: Raymund
- Location: Houston, Texas, United States
I write science fiction (sf) and fantasy, and I'm a book reviewer for Escape Pod (escapepod.org). I follow the sciences--I have a Ph.D. in biochemistry, but also pay attention to neuroscience and astronomy. When not working or writing, I trade currencies, and with what's left of my free time I read sf/f, history, and economics, play computer and board games, keep fit, occasionally fire up the grill, and love my wife.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Demography is Density
Reason's hit and run blog recently posted about National Review conservatives' phobia of Muslim birthrates. (Don't worry, I have far better things to do than read the New Republic or National Review). You've read the sound bites, e.g., Mark Steyn's "the future belongs to those who show up," deployed like infantry squares against the cavalry charges of political correctness, Muslim terrorism, and Mexican illegal immigration.
Relax--the "demography is destiny" people are out to lunch. Here's why.
1. Global birth rates are dropping. Let me repeat that for people who haven't realized Paul Ehrlich has been full of shit for decades. Global birth rates are dropping. The United Nations Population Division (that's right, the UN, America's third oldest enemy behind France and the Mahometans of the Barbary Coast) predicts global population to be from about 7-10 billion in 2050, with a median estimate of 9 billion for 2070 and beyond. The fertility rate (number of children born per woman) is below 2.5 and dropping in Mexico (2.39) and below 2.1, the steady-state level, in both China (1.75) and Iran (1.71)!
2. "Demography is destiny" is the desiccated husk of a metaphor from the dying industrial age. Once upon a time economic and military might emerged from the assembly line and conscription, but even then, the ability to manipulate information was a force multiplier--consider how its bureaucracy and school system gave Prussia under Frederick the Great (pop. 5-10 million) an army superior to that of vastly more populous, but poorer and less centralized, Russia.
But now, both wealth and the ability to convert it to military advantage are a matter of knowledge and communication, and not the bashing of bulk materials or the bludgeoning of conscripts. As I've told Curtis, one bullet in the right place at the right moment can do more to achieve victory than a million bullets fired blindly. (This photo served North Vietnam better than anything the NVA did in combat). The US victories against the Iraqi Army in 1991 and 2003 were won by superior knowledge, to which our fancy firepower was a servant. The US stalemate in Iraq from 2003-2007, conversely, emerged from inferior knowledge, specifically our failures to understand Iraqi language, culture, and social networks.
Not to encourage complacency--the US's position as the world's sole superpower isn't ordained by God--but let's be serious for a moment. Would the Caliphate Navy and Air Force be able to achieve enough air/sea superiority to land an invasion force on US soil? Would the Fuerza Occupada de Aztlan be able to suppress an anglo insurrection in Texas and California? China, India, and Europe look to be the only states capable of competing with the US in the information age. Hmm, someone should blog about that....
Relax--the "demography is destiny" people are out to lunch. Here's why.
1. Global birth rates are dropping. Let me repeat that for people who haven't realized Paul Ehrlich has been full of shit for decades. Global birth rates are dropping. The United Nations Population Division (that's right, the UN, America's third oldest enemy behind France and the Mahometans of the Barbary Coast) predicts global population to be from about 7-10 billion in 2050, with a median estimate of 9 billion for 2070 and beyond. The fertility rate (number of children born per woman) is below 2.5 and dropping in Mexico (2.39) and below 2.1, the steady-state level, in both China (1.75) and Iran (1.71)!
2. "Demography is destiny" is the desiccated husk of a metaphor from the dying industrial age. Once upon a time economic and military might emerged from the assembly line and conscription, but even then, the ability to manipulate information was a force multiplier--consider how its bureaucracy and school system gave Prussia under Frederick the Great (pop. 5-10 million) an army superior to that of vastly more populous, but poorer and less centralized, Russia.
But now, both wealth and the ability to convert it to military advantage are a matter of knowledge and communication, and not the bashing of bulk materials or the bludgeoning of conscripts. As I've told Curtis, one bullet in the right place at the right moment can do more to achieve victory than a million bullets fired blindly. (This photo served North Vietnam better than anything the NVA did in combat). The US victories against the Iraqi Army in 1991 and 2003 were won by superior knowledge, to which our fancy firepower was a servant. The US stalemate in Iraq from 2003-2007, conversely, emerged from inferior knowledge, specifically our failures to understand Iraqi language, culture, and social networks.
Not to encourage complacency--the US's position as the world's sole superpower isn't ordained by God--but let's be serious for a moment. Would the Caliphate Navy and Air Force be able to achieve enough air/sea superiority to land an invasion force on US soil? Would the Fuerza Occupada de Aztlan be able to suppress an anglo insurrection in Texas and California? China, India, and Europe look to be the only states capable of competing with the US in the information age. Hmm, someone should blog about that....
Labels: 5GW, Eight Futures, global population, information age
Archives
February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 October 2007 November 2007
